The resilience test of China’s manufacturing industry under the acceleration of global supply chain restructuring

Core Insights
The global geopolitical landscape is accelerating the restructuring of the global supply chain system, and China’s manufacturing industry is facing a strategic turning point of “rebalancing efficiency and security.” The window for industrial transformation and upgrading has been shortened by 3-5 years compared to expectations.

Driving Factors

1. Security logic surpasses efficiency logic: The game between major powers has given rise to new trends in nearshore and friendly shore outsourcing, and trade protectionism is spreading globally
2. Intergenerational technological revolution superposition: Dual transformation pressure of intelligent manufacturing (Industry 4.0) and green manufacturing (carbon neutrality)
3. Structural changes in costs: Total factor cost reassessment (including environmental/data/supply chain risk premiums in the decision-making system)
4. Regional value chain reconstruction: Southeast Asia’s manufacturing ecosystem maturity exceeds expectations, creating gradient substitution pressure

Key Evidence

• ASEAN’s share of China’s exports jumped from 12.7% in 2018 to 15.8% in 2023, while the US share decreased by 4.3 percentage points during the same period
• Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory achieves localization rate of over 95% in 2023, but simultaneously launches Berlin+Monterey dual center strategy
• The Economist Intelligence Unit report shows that the budget for supply chain restructuring of multinational corporations has surged by 230% year-on-year, and the strategic cycle has been compressed from 3 years to 18 months
• According to a survey by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 76% of specialized, refined, and new enterprises are facing double standard certification barriers of “equipment networking transformation” and “carbon accounting system”

Strategic Significance
When supply chain security becomes a new pricing factor, Chinese manufacturing must reconstruct the value formula: from “scale × efficiency” to “(technology density × green premium) × supply chain resilience.” This requires companies to establish a three-dimensional coordinate system:

• Vertical breakthrough: Mastering core processes (e.g., achieving 34% localization rate for semiconductor deposition equipment)
• Horizontal layout: Regional manufacturing nodes deployment (increasing China-ASEAN Capacity Cooperation Index by 19%)
• System integration: Digital intelligence and carbon neutrality dual-track standards convergence

In the next five years, industrial clusters that can maintain a dynamic balance between “technological sovereignty control” and “open innovation ecology” will lead the process of redrawing the next-generation global manufacturing map.