Accelerating the Restructuring of the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain: A New Chess Game in the Technology Industry under the Great Power Game

Core Insights

The global semiconductor supply chain is undergoing a strategic transformation from efficiency-first to safety-first, and geopolitical factors have surpassed business logic as the core consideration of industrial layout for the first time, indicating that a reconstruction of the technology industry order led by major powers has entered a substantive stage.

Driving Factors

1. National security paradigm upgrade: The strategic value of cutting-edge chips has been redefined, and semiconductors have become a fundamental strategic resource in the digital age
2. Systemic fragility exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic: 78% of the world’s advanced process capacity is excessively concentrated in specific regions, triggering the demand for risk aversion in the industrial chain
3. High-intensity policy leverage intervention: Major economies’ combined industrial policy investment of over $300 billion is rewriting market rules

The three mutually reinforce each other, promoting the transformation of business decision-making into a composite calculation of political economy, with the epidemic as the trigger, the competition for technological dominance as the main cause, and policy intervention as the catalyst, jointly constructing a new industrial rule framework.

Key Evidence

• TSMC Arizona factory plans to double its 5-nanometer production capacity (target monthly production capacity of 50,000 pieces by 2026)
• The US CHIPS and Science Act explicitly prohibits subsidized companies from expanding production of advanced processes below 28 nanometers in China within ten years
• Samsung Electronics wins $600 million tax relief from Texas government for new wafer fab in Taylor City
• ASML’s financial report shows that EUV equipment shipments to Chinese customers will return to zero in 2023, and DUV shipments decrease by 41% year-on-year

Strategic Insights

The essence of this supply chain restructuring is a significant adjustment of production relations in the digital age, which means:

1. The semiconductor industry will form a “technology sovereignty circle” separatist situation, and the location choice of enterprises is essentially a political stance statement
2. In the short term, the industry will suffer efficiency losses (Boston Consulting Group estimates a 10-15% decrease in global capacity utilization), but it will also generate regional technological generation dividends
3. Chinese semiconductor companies are facing a “strategic opportunity window period” of accelerated technological breakthroughs, and the R&D breakthroughs in the next 36 months will determine their ecological niche in the restructured landscape

Note: This analysis is based on simulated industry intelligence generation; real news materials and specific data must be substituted in practical applications