Core Insights
The increased export controls on advanced process equipment from the United States to China will accelerate the “factionalization” of the global technology supply chain, forcing China to build its own ecosystem in mature process areas and ultimately giving rise to a new market system parallel to Western technology standards.
Driving factors
- Geopolitical technological hegemony competition: Processes below 3nm are seen as strategic infrastructure for AI and quantum computing
- Alliance political pressure: The United States successfully binds ASML/Tokyo Electronics to form a technology blockade alliance
- Market Reaction Effect: China’s mature process investment surges by 42% in 2023, forcing capacity restructuring
- Technology Replacement Window: Breakthrough in Chiplet Heterogeneous Integration Technology Shortens Generation Gap and Catch-up Cycle
Key evidence
- The new regulations expand the scope of embargo to 18 types of coating equipment, covering 12 key technological nodes of logic chips/storage chips/advanced packaging
- SMIC’s financial report shows that the utilization rate of the 28nm production line has reached 108%, and the order schedule for automotive chips is scheduled until Q3 2026
- ASML CEO Peter Wen warns: “Excessive regulation will stimulate China to establish a completely independent semiconductor ecosystem at mature nodes”
Strategic insights
When technological blockade surpasses economic rationality and becomes a strategic tool, the global semiconductor industry will split into a “high-performance low-cost” dual track system.
Chinese enterprises need to leverage the scale advantage of mature processes in the 5G IoT/smart electric vehicle wave, and open up the “de Vatna system” technology standard through asymmetric paths such as Chiplet heterogeneous integration, RISC-V architecture, and third-generation semiconductors. The next three years will be a critical window period for finalizing the technological roadmap.
