Danish Model: Alternative Strategy to End Youth Smoking

Core Insights
The historic decline in smoking rates among young people in Denmark is not an accidental public health victory, but strong evidence of the “substitution effect” at play. The data clearly shows that when there are safer nicotine alternatives available in the market, such as electronic cigarettes and nicotine bags, young people will actively choose them to replace traditional cigarettes. This trend reveals a fundamental shift: the future of tobacco control strategies lies not in mandatory “prohibition”, but in a pragmatic “harm reduction” path.

Driving factors

1. Product Innovation and Market Accessibility: The technology maturity and widespread popularity of non combustible products such as electronic cigarettes, nicotine bags, and heated tobacco provide consumers, especially young people, with multiple choices in addition to the deadly traditional cigarettes. This is the material basis for achieving substitution.
2. Fundamental shift in consumer behavior: Young people are voting with action, and their demand for nicotine has not disappeared, but the way to meet this demand has shifted from high-risk burning tobacco to low-risk alternatives. This is not an explosive growth in nicotine addiction, but a shift in potential smoking behavior towards safer forms.
3. The game of global policy concepts: The experience of Denmark and other Nordic countries contrasts sharply with the strict ban policies adopted by countries such as Australia. The former achieved a rapid decrease in smoking rates by allowing and regulating alternatives; The latter, due to policy mistakes, has given rise to illegal markets and may hinder smokers from turning to safer choices. This comparison highlights the decisive impact of policy direction on public health outcomes.

Key evidence

• The smoking rate among Danish youth has plummeted sharply: Aarhus University’s “UngMap 2025” study shows that the daily smoking rate among young people aged 15 to 25 has dropped sharply from 15.4% in 2014 to 2.7%. During the same period, the usage rate of smokeless nicotine products increased from 23.6% to 26.3%, clearly demonstrating the substitution relationship between the two behaviors.
• The common pattern in the Nordic region: This trend is not unique to Denmark. The report from the Nordic Welfare Center confirms that in the entire Scandinavian Peninsula, areas with high market access for smokeless nicotine products have the fastest decline in youth smoking rates. Sweden has become the country with the lowest smoking and tobacco related mortality rates in Europe, thanks to its snuff and nicotine bags.
• The verification of the basic principle of science: “People smoke for nicotine, but die from tar in the smoke.” Danish data once again confirms this classic statement. By separating nicotine from the combustion process, the harm can be significantly reduced.
• Warning from negative examples: The radical ban policies on electronic cigarettes adopted by countries such as Australia have not effectively curbed their use by young people, but have instead weakened their potential as a smoking cessation tool, leading to some adult smokers giving up on switching and even resuming smoking.

Strategic insights
The data from Denmark provides decisive insights into the future direction of global tobacco control policies. Policy makers must go beyond the idealized ideology of “eliminating nicotine” and shift towards evidence-based pragmatism. The strategic core should shift from “prohibition” to “guidance”, that is, by developing differentiated and risk proportional regulatory frameworks, strictly controlling the most harmful combustible cigarettes, while retaining legal channels for adult smokers to obtain and turn to scientifically proven low-risk alternatives.
The true victory of future public health is not to build an unrealistic “nicotine free” society, but to end the diseases and deaths caused by tobacco burning. Young people in Denmark are inadvertently showing us the most effective path to a ‘smoke-free future’ – replacing combustion with innovation and overcoming stubbornness with pragmatism.